GlobalWarming & ClimateChange News Desk – In short:A team of international scientists has modelled the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Antarctic Peninsula amid human-induced climate change. They say higher temperatures could reduce sea ice coverage by 20 per cent and trigger other “devastating” impacts on the environment and wildlife by the end of the century.

What’s next?

The researchers say emissions need to be curtailed to avoid global temperatures rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Scientists say parts of Antarctica face “devastating” and “irreversible” impacts from climate change unless urgent action is taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions.

International researchers have raised the alarm after modelling the best-case and worst-case scenarios for the Antarctic Peninsula under a range of global warming outcomes.

The wildlife-rich peninsula, which is already one of the fastest-warming regions on the planet, is the icy continent’s main hub for scientific research, tourism and fisheries.

“Its future depends on the choices that we make today,” said lead author Professor Bethan Davies, from the UK’s Newcastle University.

“Under a low emissions future, we can avoid the most important and detrimental impacts.

“However, under a higher emissions scenario, we risk the loss of sea ice, ice shelves, glaciers, and iconic species such as penguins.”

A decline in krill would impact penguins and other species, the study found. (ABC News: Jano Gibson)normal

The report, published in Frontiers in Environmental Science, modelled the likely impact of three different scenarios by 2100 and beyond:

• Low emissions, where global temperatures rise by 1.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, noting they are already about 1.5 degrees warmer.
• Medium-high emissions (3.6 degrees above pre-industrial levels)
• Very high emissions (4.4 degrees above pre-industrial levels)

Eight different aspects of the Antarctic Peninsula’s environment were examined in relation to potential future impacts.

They included ice shelves, sea ice, land ice, marine ecosystems, terrestrial ecosystems, the Southern Ocean, the atmosphere, extreme events and implications for operations.

In the higher emissions scenario, modelling showed changes “irreversible on a human timescale”. (Supplied: Peter Convey)normal

The study found low emissions would result in “modest changes” in sea ice, ice shelves and land ice.

Under the mid-range scenario, the modelling indicated further changes, including increased severity and frequency of extreme events and “localised extinction events”.

“This scenario, closest to our current trajectory, would see sustained ice loss at a faster rate than present, considerable and practically irreversible changes to habitats, infrastructure damage and challenges to operational environments,” the report states.

Under the higher emissions scenario, the modelling showed “long-term and interrelated changes … which are irreversible on a human timescale”, including:

• The number of days per year above 0 degrees Celsius rising from 19 to 48
• Sea ice coverage reducing by 20 per cent over winter
• The range of keystone species such as krill contracting to the south, impacting predators such as penguins and whales
• Greatly increased frequency and intensity of extreme events, including atmospheric and oceanic heatwaves
• Significant ice shelf thinning and ice loss in southern parts of the peninsula
• Accelerated ocean warming, warmer air temperatures and increased likelihood of liquid precipitation
• Glacier recession and ice shelf collapse

While the report acknowledges the “uncertainties” of predicting future changes with confidence, it concludes that a low-emissions pathway provides the best chance of protecting the area.

“The higher emissions pathways … would result in dramatic and irreversible changes to the Peninsula, damaging its charismatic wildlife and unique ecosystems, contributing to sea level rise and resulting in significant operational challenges in a region that is increasingly of global geopolitical interest and competition,” it states.

“Urgent actions towards maintaining global temperatures as far below 2 degrees C and as close to 1.5 degrees C of warming as possible … are needed to avoid these devastating changes in this vulnerable polar region.”

Modelling of a high-emissions scenario showed “glacier recession and ice shelf collapse”. (Supplied: Professor Peter Convey)normal

Professor Davies said future changes in Antarctica would have significant repercussions elsewhere.

“Though Antarctica is far away, changes here will impact the rest of the world through changes in sea level, oceanic and atmospheric connections and circulation changes,” she said.

“Changes in the Antarctic do not stay in the Antarctic.”

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